Million hits contest

From WWR

This has been moved from The Mill.

How about a contest? Who can guess the date/time when the main chat page gets its 1 millionth hit. The prize would be an all-expenses paid trip to Talkeetna, plus $1,000 spending money and a brand new Toyota. That's in the budget, right Jim? Could be fun. The only potential drawback is continual page reloads by people trying to artificially inflate the number so they win. But WWR listeners aren't cheaters, are they? Thoughts? --J-Walk 16:29, April 29, 2006 (AKDT)

Contents 1 THE WINNER! 2 Historical Data 3 Predictions 4 Comments

THE WINNER!

The winner is...

Somebody fill in the name of the winner so Jim can send the prize. It's way too complicated for me.

--J-Walk 17:47, September 30, 2006 (AKDT)

Historical Data

• Trying to get a feel for the numbers. Right now it's 244,464. --J-Walk 16:13, April 30, 2006 (AKDT)
• 252,832 --J-Walk 13:36, May 1, 2006 (AKDT)
• 254,652 --J-Walk 18:45, May 1, 2006 (AKDT)
• 262,795 --J-Walk 15:08, May 2, 2006 (AKDT)
• 266,909 --J-Walk 06:18, May 3, 2006 (AKDT)
• 276,380 --J-Walk 14:36, May 4, 2006 (AKDT)
• 278,686 --Jimbob 22:44, May 4, 2006 (AKDT) (In case the graph shows it'll hit later than you're usually up)
• 284,400 --J-Walk 17:37, May 5, 2006 (AKDT)
• 302,305 --J-Walk 07:46, May 9, 2006 (AKDT)
• 311,875 --J-Walk 17:52, May 10, 2006 (AKDT)
• 325,814 --J-Walk 06:07, May 13, 2006 (AKDT)
• 340,849 --J-Walk 11:06, May 16, 2006 (AKDT)
• 354,590 --J-Walk 18:36, May 18, 2006 (AKDT)
• 355,503 --Jimbob 22:54, May 18, 2006 (AKDT) (for fine-grain accuracy)
• 366,380 --J-Walk 10:44, May 21, 2006 (AKDT)
• 392,154 --J-Walk 16:43, May 26, 2006 (AKDT)
• 428,264 --J-Walk 10:16, June 2, 2006 (AKDT)
• 464,684 --J-Walk 09:04, June 8, 2006 (AKDT)
• 473,135 --J-Walk 18:11, June 9, 2006 (AKDT)
• 543,161 --J-Walk 06:38, June 25, 2006 (AKDT)
• 559,968 --J-Walk 17:16, June 29, 2006 (AKDT)
• 746,810 --J-Walk 18:33, August 8, 2006 (AKDT)
• 956,673 --Sparkit 05:51, September 22, 2006 (AKDT)
• 990,103 --Jimbob 10:09, September 28, 2006 (AKDT)
• 992,862 --Jimbob 18:44, September 28, 2006 (AKDT) (after posting a relatively low visibility link in J-Walk's blog comments)
• 994,488 --Jimbob 23:30, September 28, 2006 (AKDT)
• 995,350 --Jimbob 08:58, September 29, 2006 (AKDT)
• 997,108 --Sparks 15:48, September 29, 2006 (AKDT)
• 998,181 --Jimbob 18:32, September 29, 2006 (AKDT) (right after server crash)
• 1,000,000 --Esther 23:05, September 29, 2006 (AKDT)

• 1,000,186 --Jimbob 23:10, September 29, 2006 (AKDT)
• 1,001,526 --Jimbob 09:05, September 30, 2006 (AKDT) (on our way to the 2nd million)

Predictions

After performing a WAG, I predict that it will be at midnight AKDT on August 30, 2006. -Anagram 18:13, May 10, 2006 (AKDT)

Sept. 30, 2006 - High noon. (Sparks 15:44, September 29, 2006 (AKDT)) Oct. 12, 2006 - High noon. (Sparkit 15:48, August 30, 2006 (AKDT))

Oct. 12, 2006 - 11:59AM (Jimbob 10:09, September 23, 2006 (AKDT))

Oct. 12, 2006 at 11:58a.m. Jane

Sep 30, 2006 - 12:30 AM (cheyenne 08:50, September 28, 2006 (AKDT))

Oct. 8, 2006 - 11:48 AM AST Cub Driver 08:29, September 28, 2006 (AKDT)

Sep 29, 2006 - 12:28 AM That's the mathematical prediction based on a linear regression analysis.--J-Walk 10:34, September 28, 2006 (AKDT)

Sep 30, 2006 - 8:25 PM That's my guess --J-Walk 10:34, September 28, 2006 (AKDT)

Sep 29, 2006 - 17:29 (AKDT) --RickHap 12:11, September 28, 2006 (AKDT)

Comments

You're going to graph this, aren't you? --Toad 15:23, May 2, 2006 (AKDT)

There is no way in hell that I would NOT graph that. With Excel 2007, charting is a breeze! It's never been easier to create attractive, professional charts that will make your boss drool. --J-Walk 16:20, May 2, 2006 (AKDT)

I'm my own boss. And, I already drool. --Toad 18:23, May 2, 2006 (AKDT)

After performing a linear forecasting regression analysis, I predict that the one-millionth hit will occur on August 25 at 5:01 am. The prediction will get more accurate as we accumulate more data points. --J-Walk 07:59, May 9, 2006 (AKDT)

After performing a WAG, I predict that it will be at midnight AKDT on August 30, 2006. -Anagram 18:13, May 10, 2006 (AKDT)

I believe that I have it figured out, and I would like to enter the contest.

I ran a simple trendline on the data using a third-order polynomial for best fit on the number of days since WWR Wiki Inception. The equation given by Excel is seen in the chart below (I can't believe I'm giving away my trade secrets here).

Secret Formula: y = -1.2601x³ + 126.31x² + 2877.5x -29.344

R² = 0.9996

Using the formula obtained in the previous step, I simply extrapolated the data.

According to my calculations, the WWR Wiki will reach its peak usage of 395,153 cumulative clicks on June 5th, 2006. After that, clicks will start being 'removed' from the wiki, and by New Year's Eve, entering the year 2007, the cumulative count of clicks on the WWR Wiki will be -18558800. The WWR Wiki will live a short life and fizzle out with the rest of the great--J-Walk 15:01, May 23, 2006 (AKDT) WWR features of the past.

Respectfully submitted: Sol 14:37, May 23, 2006 (AKDT)

Wow, that's an impressive analysis, Sol. But didn't you forget to factor in Esther's trip to Texas? Her absence will have a huge effect on WWR, since nobody wants to listen to that sidekick or hers -- what's his name again? JimmyJoe or whatever. Please re-do the analysis and have it on my desk first thing in the morning. Oh yeah, and do it in Excel 2007 so the charts will look better. --J-Walk 15:01, May 23, 2006 (AKDT)

They call him "good enough for government work Sol". Pretty sad, the kids these days. --Toad 15:25, May 23, 2006 (AKDT)

OK, I didn't include Esther's absense in my t-statistic analysis. But do you know anyone who can help me with my charts? This Excel program really scares me. Maybe a good book would help. Do you know where I can get one? I've heard of this "Walk-a-blog" guy or something, but I want a good one. -- Sol 15:30, May 23, 2006 (AKDT)

So, THIS is what you do J-Walking? Do you ever color in the little boxes? I predict that we will reach one million on December 31, 2006 at 11:59 PM (AK time) -- ReWoven 19:43, June 7, 2006 (AKDT)

ReWoven, those charts are from Sol. When I make my charts, they will be very colorful and happy-looking. --J-Walk 09:04, June 8, 2006 (AKDT)